7 min read
Why do we struggle to imagine the future?
The future—like taxes—is one of life’s few certainties. And yet, most people struggle to think about it in a meaningful way. Why?
One reason is cognitive bias. Our brains evolved to prioritize immediate survival over long-term strategy. This creates what is known as short-termism—a tendency to focus on present concerns at the expense of long-term planning. For example, imagine a farmer in ancient times: their priority was ensuring they had enough food for the next season, not planning for changes in agriculture centuries ahead. This same instinct remains with us today, making it hard to think beyond the immediate future. Think about how many companies focus obsessively on quarterly earnings reports, often at the expense of long-term innovation or sustainability. For instance, a tech startup might prioritize quick user growth to please investors, while neglecting to build a scalable infrastructure that ensures its survival in five years.
Another key bias is the lifespan bias, which makes us believe that the world will always function the way it does within our own lifetime. We assume that major societal structures—like education, government, or the economy—will remain largely unchanged, even though history shows us that radical shifts can and do happen.. even within our lifetime!
Another problem is perspective limitation. A fish cannot describe water because it has never been outside of it. Similarly, we struggle to analyze our own era objectively. We assume the future will be a bigger, shinier version of today, with the same social, political, and economic rules—just with better technology. This is what’s called the present-forward fallacy, where we project current trends forward without considering deeper structural changes. But history tells a different story: societies evolve in ways we rarely predict.
A dangerous myth: “The future belongs to the young”
How often do we hear this? The future belongs to the young. It sounds empowering, but in reality, it’s a form of responsibility avoidance.
When we say the future is for young people, we create two false narratives:
- Older generations have no stake in what happens next. This leads to disengagement from long-term decision-making, as if those over a certain age no longer have influence over the world’s direction.
- Young people must fix the problems they inherit. This places an unfair burden on them, implying that every generation starts from scratch, when in fact, societies are built on accumulated decisions made by people of all ages.
The truth? The future belongs to everyone who will live in it. The decisions we make today, no matter our age or position, actively shape what’s coming. Future-building is an intergenerational responsibility, and no one is exempt from shaping it.
Why do we keep making the same mistakes?
Every generation believes it is experiencing “unprecedented uncertainty.” Consider the late 19th and early 20th centuries: industrialization, world wars, and economic depressions created a sense of immense upheaval. Yet, societies adapted, new technologies emerged, and global cooperation reshaped the world. Similarly, today’s uncertainties—AI, climate change, geopolitical shifts—are part of an ongoing cycle of transformation. Recognizing this historical pattern helps us navigate the future with perspective rather than fear.
What’s different today? The illusion of increasing uncertainty. The world feels more chaotic not because things are worse, but because we are more aware of what’s happening—and because the pace of change has accelerated dramatically. The speed of information creates a sense of endless crisis. Events that would have once been local or slow-moving now spread rapidly, making us feel as though we are constantly on the edge of collapse.
But here’s the key difference: change itself has become faster and more interconnected than ever before. Technological advancements, globalized economies, and digital communication mean that shifts that once took decades now happen in years—or even months. Yet, the fundamentals of human nature remain unchanged: we experience uncertainty, we adapt, and we move forward. Understanding this allows us to navigate change with clarity rather than panic.
The key to taking back control: thinking in systems, not in silos
The biggest mistake in futures-thinking is believing it’s an individual exercise. In reality, futures-thinking requires a systemic approach, considering how different elements interact within a larger ecosystem. For example, an individual entrepreneur might focus on how AI can optimize their business, but a systemic thinker would ask how AI impacts the labor market, ethics, and social structures as a whole. While personal decisions matter, they are always interconnected with broader forces. Without this awareness, we risk making short-sighted choices that fail to address long-term consequences.
This means shifting from personal goals to systemic thinking:
- Stop asking, “what do I want my future to look like?” and start asking, “what kind of world do I want to contribute to?”
- Recognize that no decision is made in isolation—every action influences a broader network.
- Understand that narrative shapes reality. The stories we tell about the future determine what we are willing to build. For example, if the dominant narrative about artificial intelligence is that it will replace all human jobs, society might react by resisting AI advancements. But if the story shifts to AI as a tool that augments human creativity and efficiency, we are more likely to develop policies and strategies that maximize its benefits.
Embracing plural futures
A true futurist thinks in pluralities, not singularities. There isn’t one predetermined future hurtling toward us—there are countless possible futures, each shaped by the decisions we make today. This plurality mindset liberates us from fatalism. Instead of asking, “What will happen?” we ask, “What could happen?” and “What should happen?” This shift transforms us from passive observers into active architects of tomorrow.
By considering multiple scenarios—from best-case to worst-case and everything in between—we develop what futurists call strategic foresight. This isn’t about predicting accurately; it’s about expanding our imaginative capacity to prepare for various possibilities, thereby increasing our adaptability when change inevitably comes.
Scaling success through strategic planning
Those who think like futurists understand a fundamental truth: strategic planning scales your probability of success exponentially. While reactive thinkers lurch from crisis to crisis, strategic thinkers position themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Consider how Amazon’s Jeff Bezos planned for e-commerce dominance in the 1990s when others saw the internet as a passing fad. Or how Singapore transformed from a resource-poor island into a global financial hub through decades of intentional planning. These weren’t lucky breaks—they were the results of strategic foresight.
By anticipating multiple futures and planning accordingly, you don’t just increase your chances of success marginally—you scale them dramatically. The difference between reactive and proactive thinking isn’t linear; it’s exponential.
Breaking free from the firefighting mentality
In Brazil, there’s a saying: “Apagando incêndios” (putting out fires)—describing the endless cycle of crisis management that prevents strategic thinking. This perfectly captures how most individuals and organizations operate: constantly responding to emergencies rather than preventing them.
This firefighting mentality keeps us trapped in survival mode. We exhaust ourselves addressing symptoms instead of underlying causes, never finding time to build the systems that would prevent fires in the first place.
Breaking this cycle requires a mental shift from reaction to anticipation. While firefighting feels productive (the adrenaline rush of solving immediate problems provides instant gratification), it ultimately depletes our resources and narrows our vision.
True futurists understand that fires never stop by themselves—they must be prevented through strategic intervention. This means allocating time and resources to long-term planning even when short-term crises demand attention.
Practical steps to build a futures-mindset
So, how do we train ourselves to think about the future in a way that is empowering, not overwhelming?
- Strengthening awareness of weak signals. Small shifts in technology, culture, or policy can shape tomorrow’s landscape. Observing early signs of change—such as emerging consumer behaviors or shifts in language—can provide valuable foresight.
- Questioning assumptions. The beliefs that shape current decisions may not hold true in the future. Regularly challenging industry norms, social expectations, and personal biases allows for a broader exploration of possibilities.
- Embracing uncertainty strategically. Instead of seeking definitive answers, adopting scenario thinking can help navigate ambiguity. Considering multiple potential outcomes makes it easier to adapt when the unexpected happens.
- Integrating foresight into daily practices. From business strategy to personal planning, incorporating long-term thinking—such as setting adaptive goals or stress-testing decisions against future trends—helps maintain agility in an evolving world.
- Balancing dualities rather than reinforcing polarities. Many challenges are not either/or dilemmas but tensions to be managed. Viewing innovation and tradition, stability and change, or global and local perspectives as complementary rather than opposing creates more resilient strategies.
By embedding these practices into the way decisions are made, the future becomes less about predicting the unknown and more about preparing for a range of possibilities with confidence and clarity.
Final thought: the future is decided
The biggest lie about the future is that it is something that happens to us. The truth is that the future is something we shape, moment by moment. It does not belong to one generation, one profession, or one elite group—it belongs to everyone willing to engage with it.
Are you ready to take control? Start by shifting your mindset today: identify a weak signal in your industry, challenge one assumption you hold about the future, and explore how your daily decisions contribute to long-term change. The future begins with the choices you make now.